February 13, 2024

Bitcoin Price Peaks Amidst Decline in Search Interest

Despite bitcoin's ascent to near two-year highs in price, the level of retail interest and search engagement has plummeted to levels reminiscent of the bear market.

While bitcoin's price has soared to levels not seen in nearly two years, retail interest and search engagement have declined to lows reminiscent of the bear market. Both crypto social media and Google Trends indicate a significant decrease in engagement rates currently.

Comparing the current engagement to the period of ETF approval, there has been an approximately 80% decrease, bringing it back to bear market levels.

Google Trends data reveals that searches for 'Bitcoin' have returned to cycle-low levels. This drop follows a brief surge in January following the launch of spot ETFs in the United States.

Commenting on these search trends, Bitcoin Archive remarked:

"I don’t know what the implications are for the shape of this cycle, but it does seem that we are very early, still."

They noted a similarity to previous years, citing increased X (formerly Twitter) activity in October and November 2020 when BTC surpassed $15,000. However, current activity is down 85% from the previous all-time high, mirroring the situation with Ethereum search trends despite record levels of ether staking.

"It still feels like a bear-market ghost town sort of vibe. Same regulars posting and engaging, perhaps more often, but it’s still the same crew."

Search trends currently stand at a mere quarter of the levels observed during the 2021 bull market, despite bitcoin's price hovering just 30% below its all-time high.

The Bitcoin subreddit, while experiencing steady growth, has not seen a significant uptick in activity, indicating a lack of excitement.

Furthermore, both Reddit posts and comments are at lows typical of a bear market, showing no signs of increased interest.

However, the crypto fear and greed index paints a different picture, registering a 'greed' reading of 79. Although not reaching the extreme levels seen in February 2021 when it hit 95, it suggests a certain level of optimism in the market.

Many observers agree that retail FOMO tends to rise hard around the market's previous highs, which may still be a year away. Thus, BTC surpassing $69,000 could potentially trigger the next wave of retail FOMO (fear of missing out), signaling a new phase in the market's evolution.

In the words of investor and analyst Fred Krueger:

"People only get interested when they think they can make a lot of money quickly."
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